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September 29, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
The rate hike everyone has already agreed to ignore
Gold is down a quarter from its January record while a shooting war closes the Strait of Hormuz, which is not how the hedge was sold to anybody. Good morning and welcome to…
September 28, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
A state dinner for the people being negotiated over
Nasdaq futures are up on a summit three days away whose AI agenda explicitly leaves out the export controls that actually bind. Good morning and welcome to today's market…
September 28, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
Hormuz is closed, stocks are up, next question
Gold is falling in the middle of a war, which tells you the Fed now frightens people more than the Strait of Hormuz does. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle.…
September 25, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
The AI trade discovers contract law
Oracle sent a force majeure notice on a data center it insists is on schedule, and the market decided this was a paperwork story. Good morning and welcome to today's market…
September 24, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
The economy is fine, which is the problem
A two-month tariff truce took the headlines yesterday while the five-year Treasury printed 5 percent for the first time since 2007. Good morning and welcome to today's market…
September 23, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
Gold sits out its own war
Crude gave back another percent overnight on the strength of a single three-hour meeting, while the tankers still are not sailing through Hormuz. Good morning and welcome to…
September 22, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
Hormuz is closed, the Nasdaq is open
AMD told its partners to expect ten percent higher prices next quarter, and the market bought the stock as a disinflation trade. Good morning and welcome to today's market…
September 18, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
A pipeline in Saudi Arabia does the Fed's job
The Federal Reserve raised rates into a war, promised to do it again before Christmas, and the Nasdaq answered with its best day in six weeks. Good morning and welcome to today's…
September 17, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
Twenty-two minutes of resolve, and the banks paid
The Fed hiked for the first time in three years and the ten year, which prices everything that matters, finished the day where it started. Good morning and welcome to today's…
September 16, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
The consumer gets five and a half hours
The Fed publishes a projection chart this afternoon that does not contain the projection of the man who runs the Fed. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's…
September 15, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
Five percent arrives without a press conference
The Fed is expected to raise rates tomorrow to fight an oil price being set by drones over a Saudi pipeline nobody in that room can reach. Good morning and welcome to today's…
September 14, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
A rate hike for a shipping problem
Dario Amodei asked the industry to slow down, Altman and Musk agreed, and the only thing that actually slowed was the chip complex. Good morning and welcome to today's market…
September 11, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
Diesel, and other things that are not inflation
Diesel rose twenty four percent in a single month and the Fed decides next week whether that counts as inflation. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's…
September 10, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
Hormuz sets the print, the committee sets the mood
Oil closed above a hundred dollars a barrel yesterday after the US destroyed five Iranian tankers, and this morning equity futures are green. Good morning and welcome to today's…
September 9, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
The war where nobody agrees on the barrels
Brent is a dollar from a hundred, the Fed is priced to hike into a shooting war, and gold, the hedge bought for exactly this, fell. Good morning and welcome to today's market…
September 8, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
The curve is not buying the hike
Missiles hit Saudi energy sites overnight, Brent is a dollar from three figures, and gold is lower than it was last week. Friday's jobs report was the sort of number that ruins a…
September 4, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
The disinflation that arrives by measurement correction
Wall Street rallied more than one percent yesterday because a Fed governor said he might not raise rates, which is now what counts as good news. Good morning and welcome to…
September 3, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
The hawk the president hired by mistake
Wall Street puts two-in-three odds on a Fed hike this month, to fight an inflation that is currently sitting in a shipping lane near Iran. Good morning and welcome to today's…
September 2, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
A rate hike for a tanker
Gold sits 22% below its January record in the middle of a shooting war over the Strait of Hormuz. So much for the brochure. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle.…
September 1, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
The Fed steps back, the Treasury steps in
America is trading fire with Iran, Brent is over ninety dollars, and gold fell three and a half percent anyway. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's…
August 31, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 2 min read
Hormuz is worth one tenth of a percent
Wall Street books its best month since May today, three days after its own Fed chair explained why he may have to raise rates. Good morning and welcome to today's market…
August 28, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
The hike nobody wants to say out loud
Marvell beat, raised guidance twice, and lost seven percent in the time it takes to read the press release. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Friday,…
August 27, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
Compute is revenue, the long bond is patient
The thirty-year Treasury sits near a nineteen-year high, and Wall Street spent the night celebrating Nvidia's guidance instead. Good morning and welcome to today's market…
August 26, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
The chaperone at the long end of the curve
The Treasury is buying its own bonds back to calm the long end, and Wall Street has decided tonight's important number comes from a chip company. Good morning and welcome to…
August 25, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
Everyone is watching Nvidia instead of the long end
The Treasury is now buying its own bonds to keep the long end quiet, and gold is having its best month since 1999. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's…
August 24, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
Economic D-Day, and crude fell anyway
Fifty percent tariffs on Canada took effect at midnight, and S&P futures moved two tenths of a percent. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Monday, August…
August 21, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
The buyback that only gold believed
Walmart beat on earnings, raised its outlook, and lost nearly ten percent because its own shoppers are being squeezed at the pump. Good morning and welcome to today's market…
August 19, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
The bond market is doing the tightening for them
Three Fed officials voted to hike rates in July, and Wall Street has spent three weeks explaining why that does not count. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle.…
August 18, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
Nobody is pricing the hike except the bond market
Trump threatened to bomb Oman over a shipping lane, and Brent crude moved about a tenth of a percent. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Tuesday, August…
August 17, 2026 · Morning Chronicle · ≈ 3 min read
Reddit joins the S&P 500!
Reddit joins the S&P 500 tomorrow because two apartment landlords merged, and every index fund in America must now buy it at any price. Good morning and welcome to today's market…